UNESCO/IHE - Predicting the shape of future deltas

UNESCO/IHE - Predicting the shape of future deltas

In countries like Bangladesh, future changes in land use, sea level rise and upstream changes in the flows of water and sediment will have great impacts on the development of rivers, estuaries and coasts. The management of embankments and other flood protection measures, and the development of chars (polders) may greatly affect erosion and sedimentation patterns and extreme flood levels throughout the delta. To prepare for this, planners urgently need a tool to predict natural developments and the effects of the measures, at the scale of the whole delta system, yet sufficiently detailed to allow evaluation of local works (e.g. cross dams). In collaboration with local partners, UNESCO-IHE has developed a methodology to efficiently simulate such long-term morphological developments using Delft3D software. Though much further validation and refinement is needed, the pilot application has provided a proof-of-concept for predicting the future shape of deltas.

Contact: Dano Roelvink (d.roelvink@unesco-ihe.org)

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